Strategic early detection is already used in many companies to anticipate changes, opportunities and risks at an early stage. This approach was hardly widespread in politics. The Federal Environment Agency therefore commissioned the IZT to develop a "horizon scanning system" for strategic early recognition specifically for environmental policy. The IZT cooperated with the Research Centre for Environmental Policy at the Free University of Berlin and Condat AG Berlin. It was taken into account that there were already some relevant activities in the environmental sector: for example, climate change modelling and impact assessments of certain measures. What was missing, however, was a systematic monitoring of known trends as well as the identification of new environmentally relevant developments. The new research project determined both the costs and benefits of a horizon scanning system for the environment department.

The content of the concept study:

Horizon scanning is an instrument for the strategic early identification of economic, social, technological, political and ecological changes. As part of a concept study, it was examined how such an instrument can be used for the strategic early identification of opportunities and risks in environmental policy. This was prompted by promising experiences from several countries in which the instrument of horizon scanning has already been used in a targeted political manner. Corresponding concepts and institutional arrangements in other countries were therefore analysed for the development of a possible horizon scanning system within the remit of the Federal Environment Agency. Against this background and our own considerations, a basic concept for an environmental research and environmental policy-related horizon scanning system was developed. In a second phase, experience was gained with the identification and description of overarching socio-economic trends and new events and the concept was tested in a pilot test (focussing on "sustainable freight transport"). The underlying methodology consisted of seven steps: the determination of information requirements and the scanning field (scoping), the selection of sources and methods as well as topic research (scanning), the identification of so-called environmental topics, an expert discourse and the preparation of the scan report (assessment of the relevance of environmental topics). The report illustrated how the workflow for horizon scanning could look in detail, showed options for information technology support and made suggestions for the gradual development of a horizon scanning system at the Federal Environment Agency.

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