What environmental policy measures are necessary to ensure that Germany fulfils the objectives of international agreements on air pollution control?

This was the task set by the Federal Environment Agency for this research project. With the help of various emission scenarios, the six participating research institutes estimated the future impact of environmental policy measures on air quality. The IZT was responsible for the areas of stationary combustion and industrial processes. Firstly, a spatial distribution of the emission loads was carried out. The scientists then calculated the future pollutant concentrations together with the European background pollution and as a function of various reduction measures.

The LUFT 2030 project aims to develop updated emission and immission forecasts for the air pollutants NOx, SO2, NMVOC, NH3, PM10 and PM2.5. The background to this is the amendment of the NEC Directive (2001/81/EC) and the revision of the UN-ECE Gothenburg Protocol. Updated emission ceilings are planned for the revision of these two international agreements on air pollution control. Updated emission forecasts for air pollutants up to the year 2030 are necessary in order to be able to assess compliance with the envisaged emission ceilings. The effects of selected emission scenarios on the immission situation were analysed with the help of dispersion models.

In terms of methodology and content, the project built on the previous project: "Strategies for reducing particulate matter pollution" (PAREST). In a first step, emission forecasts were prepared. The study "Policy Scenarios for Climate Protection VI" was essentially used for this purpose. The information provided there on demographic and overall societal as well as energy industry and energy policy framework conditions was used to create an energy reference scenario. The emission forecasts for the agriculture, transport and solvent use sectors were carried out independently using sector-specific modelling. For the emission forecasts, a distinction was made between a current policy scenario (CPS) and an energy transition scenario (ETS) in accordance with policy scenario VI. While all measures taken up to 8 July 2011 were taken into account in the APS scenario, additional measures beyond this were also taken into account in the EWS scenario. In a second step, the emission data from the developed emission forecasts were distributed with high spatial resolution and, in a third step, converted into immission scenarios with the help of a chemical transport model. Finally, methods and criteria were developed in order to systematically evaluate the emission and immission scenarios and make them usable for the further development of international clean air agreements.

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