The corona pandemic demonstrates the vulnerability and susceptibility to crisis of complex societies that are highly interdependent globally. Modern societies have shown themselves to be less stable and more vulnerable than many had assumed. Further crises of this magnitude cannot be ruled out in the future. Financial crashes, global migration movements, a strengthening of nationalism and populism, climate change and resource scarcity are developments and events that, in their synergistic interaction within the framework of societal development paths, can lead to escalations of a hitherto unknown kind. In terms of both preventing and overcoming profound crises, it would be central that signs are identified at an early stage.

The TA project will examine how a continuous anticipatory crisis radar would have to be designed and institutionally anchored - also internationally - to enable early crisis and risk management. Although there is no lack of institutions that use early detection tools, the knowledge gained is not sufficiently used, networked and translated and integrated into political processes. To date, risk analyses often lack the necessary foresight. Crises and risks are not seen and thought of systemically, but rather predominantly as a state of emergency that must be countered acutely - and for a limited period of time.

In order to be better prepared for the occurrence of global shocks in the future, a permanent and global early warning system is necessary that recognises possible risks and dangers at an early stage and thus enables forward-looking crisis and risk management. The overarching goal of all measures is ultimately to maintain the vitality of society and avoid extreme situations that have a negative impact.

The aim of the TA project is to lay the foundations for early crisis and risk management by researching how a continuously anticipatory crisis radar would have to be designed and anchored at the international level. This results in two guiding questions: What deficits exist in the early detection of systemic threats? Which instruments, institutions and consultation mechanisms in the political sphere would have to be improved or created in order to ensure a rapid, comprehensive and sustainable response to crisis events? The TA project will comprise a total of four modules for this purpose:

Module 1: Lessons Learnt: Reallabor Corona - Experiences with Early Warning Systems in the Current Pandemic Crisis
Module 2: Future crises: prospective analysis of hazards with high crisis potential and vulnerability analyses in selected societal subsystems
Module 3: Institutional anchoring of early detection of systemic threats
Module 4: Resilience building: new perspectives for transformative resilience