Summer smog, acidifying soils, over-fertilised waters - the EU wanted to get the member states to reduce this environmental damage. The EU's so-called NEC Directive therefore provided for decreasing national emission ceilings (NECs) for the following four air pollutants: Sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, volatile hydrocarbons and ammonia. The aim of the new IZT research project was to update the Federal Environment Agency's emissions data for the four pollutants and to develop forecasts based on this data up to the year 2020. In addition, technical and non-technical measures were to be analysed to help reduce the relevant emissions to such an extent that Germany could comply with the NEC Directive.

The most important subject matter of the NEC Directive (2001/81/EC) were national emission ceilings (NECs) for SO2-NOx-, NH3- and NMVOC emissions listed in Annex 1 of the Directive. These emission limits for total national emissions had to be complied with by 2010. The EU Commission had to be informed about the emission reduction measures planned to comply with these values and about the development of emissions: The NEC Directive stipulated that Member States should draw up national programmes for the progressive reduction of emissions (Article 6) and submit a programme of measures to comply with the NECs (Article 8).

The aim of the project was to develop a blueprint for the further development of the National programme for compliance with the NEC Directive from a scientific point of view. For this purpose, the emission data of the Federal Environment Agency (UBA) for the four pollutants of the NEC Directive and to draw up forecasts for the development of pollutants based on this. Furthermore, measures and instruments for their implementation were to be analysed in order to tap into the emission reduction potential at that time.

The project was carried out in two work packages:

  1. Based on a compilation of historical emissions from 2000 and provisional emissions for 2005, reference emission forecasts were prepared for the years 2010, 2015 and 2020. The reference forecasts were based on environmental policy regulations, instruments and measures that had already been decided by 2005.
  2. In all emitter sectors relevant to the four pollutants, i.e. stationary combustion plants (power plants, industry, commerce and households), transport and mobile machinery, industrial processes, solvent use and agriculture, the potential for emission reduction measures that go beyond the reference scenario was analysed and summarised in various scenarios.

As a result of the project, the Federal Environment Agency was enabled to draw up a revised national programme for compliance with the NEC Directive on an updated scientific basis.