The IZT conducted a study for the German Development Institute (DIE), Bonn, on the methods of future and scenario analyses. In particular, the aim was to clarify which different scenario methods were available, what their scope, strengths and weaknesses were and which instruments appeared particularly suitable for the strategic orientation of development policy. The project team then conceptualised and moderated a scenario workshop at the DIE.

 

Background:

The German Development Institute (DIE), Bonn, carried out a project on the future of development policy. In view of the increasing uncertainty and complexity of future determinants of development policy, methods of future and scenario analysis were to be used within this project in order to reflect on and strategically orientate German and European development policy.

The study, which has now been published in German and English, provides a structured overview of the many variants of scenario methodology, including important peripheral and transitional areas to other methods of futurology. Three ideal-typical groups of scenario techniques (scenarios based on trend extrapolations, systematic-formalised scenario techniques and creative-narrative scenario techniques) were used to explain the prerequisites and origins, similarities and differences, strengths and weaknesses. Examples of hybrid method combinations and scenario transfer techniques were discussed in excursuses. A practical short guide in the form of a "checklist" was also included, which made it possible to concretise the methodological design of foresight projects on the basis of concrete decision-making questions, i.e. in particular to clarify whether and how scenario work could be used effectively in the context of such a project.

The study was published in German and English:

  • Kosow, Hannah; Gaßner, Robert: Methods of future and scenario analysis. Overview, evaluation and selection criteria; IZT Workshop Report No. 103; Berlin 2008
  • Kosow, Hannah; Gaßner, Robert: Methods of Future and Scenario Analysis. Overview, Assessment, and Selection Criteria; German Development Institute, Studies No. 39, Bonn 2008