Raw material requirements for drive technology

The IZT developed raw material scenarios for electric machines which, like wind generators, servo drives and traction motors, are energised by neodymium-iron-boron magnets. The IZT also developed scenarios for lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles. The specific material requirements were used to calculate the lithium, cobalt, neodymium and dysprosium requirements in 2015, 2020 and 2030 based on market scenarios, taking into account future material efficiency potentials. Despite geopolitical risks, the supply of neodymium and lithium is expected to be sufficient to meet demand in the medium term, as new development projects had begun mining by 2015. Material efficiency, recycling and the substitution of raw materials and the use of alternative technologies are required to counteract potential raw material shortages.

Building on the "Raw materials for future technologies" study, the IZT calculated the raw material requirements of electric drive technology in a new project. Based on market scenarios, the demand for raw materials for "cobalt", "lithium" and the rare earths "neodymium" and "dysprosium" in 2030 was estimated. These raw materials are used for neodymium-iron-boron-magnet energised electric motors and lithium-ion batteries. The focus of the study was on the future market of electromobility. However, wind generators and servo motors, for example, also use neodymium-iron-boron magnets and are therefore in "demand competition" with electric vehicles. In order to determine the share of the various demand markets in the total raw material demand for lithium, cobalt and rare earths, this was also estimated. The raw material demand of the individual markets was then set in relation to the total raw material demand in 2030.