Raw material requirements for future technologies

Important future technologies are often linked to rare metallic raw materials. Platinum, for example, is an essential raw material for the development and use of fuel cell technology and for catalytic converters in cars, tantalum is an indispensable raw material for the miniaturisation of electronic circuits, and the scarce indium
is required for display technology, for the semiconductor industry and, in future, for thin-film photovoltaics. However, economically important raw materials such as platinum, tantalum and indium are also considered "vulnerable", as their deposits are limited to a few countries and some of these are located in politically unstable regions.

On behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy, the IZT investigated potential supply risks for important raw materials that will not be used for energy purposes in the future as part of a research consortium. The time horizon for estimating the future demand for raw materials is 2030, and the scientists also set out to find an adequate forecasting method that could help to balance supply and demand and thus stabilise the raw materials markets.

As high-wage countries, industrialised nations gain competitive advantages in the global market through technical innovations. The research and development race triggered by these framework conditions continuously and sustainably increases the speed of innovation. At the same time, the German economy was almost completely dependent on imports, not only for energy raw materials but also for metals. Germany's success in exporting its high-tech and cutting-edge technology products, and thus the prosperity of society, was therefore essentially dependent on an uninterrupted supply of raw materials at reasonable prices.

The situation on the commodities markets has been highly turbulent in recent years. New market participants from the emerging markets, above all China, have triggered sometimes dramatic disparities between the supply of and demand for raw materials. The distortions that occurred caused many commodity prices to soar.

Against this background, the question arose as to what risks the supply of raw materials poses for the development of future technologies. However, it was also necessary to examine what impetus the development and industrial utilisation of such technologies had on the demand for raw materials and whether it was possible to develop a set of instruments that would allow such surges in demand to be recognised in advance. An adequate forecasting method could help to balance supply and demand and thus stabilise the raw materials markets.

While the markets for energy commodities have been at the centre of attention since the first oil crisis in 1973, the markets for metals and minerals have only recently come to the fore. This project therefore focussed exclusively on non-energy commodities. The time horizon is the year 2030.

Vulnerable commodities pose potential supply risks. Raw materials are considered vulnerable if they are of great importance to the national economy, their deposits are limited to a few countries and these are located in a politically unstable region. Because it is primarily these raw materials that could hinder the development and industrial utilisation of future technologies, they have been the focus of attention. For example, platinum is an essential raw material for the development and use of fuel cell technology, tantalum is an indispensable raw material for the miniaturisation of electronic circuits, the scarce indium for the development of display technology, the semiconductor industry and photovoltaics, and copper for hybrid and electric vehicles.

The initial set of raw materials in the project portfolio included chromium, tin, copper, platinum metals, germanium, indium, tantalum, niobium, antimony, cobalt and industrially utilised rare earths. It was supplemented in the course of the project when other raw materials were recognised as important for the development of future technologies. Future technologies are industrially utilisable technical capabilities that trigger revolutionary spurts of innovation far beyond the boundaries of individual economic sectors and have a profound long-term impact on economic structures, social life and the environment. Future technologies cannot be limited to just a few innovations, but can be found in a variety of forms in all sectors of the economy. This underlines the efforts of industrialised high-wage countries to survive in global competition through technological excellence.

The project began with broad research into future technologies for whose development the supply of vulnerable raw materials was crucial. The initially broad technology portfolio was narrowed down in several stages as the project progressed, and at the same time the analysis was deepened. The researchers anticipated considerable difficulties in obtaining technology-specific raw material information, as this subject of analysis had previously received little attention. Interviews with experts from industry and application-related research institutions formed a central methodological instrument for obtaining information. The raw material content, the stage of development, the time of market launch and the expected market diffusion were narrowed down on a technology-specific basis.

The project was completed at the end of 2008 and the results were made available to the public at the beginning of 2009.