Abstract

This study explores the question of which impulses the future industrial use of future technologies will trigger on the demand for raw materials and which raw materials such innovations are particularly dependent on. The analysis provides profound conclusions about the interplay between technological change and raw material demand. The turbulence on the commodity markets that has been increasingly observed since the beginning of this decade is not caused by the exhaustion of raw material deposits, as is often erroneously assumed. The market turbulence arose from an imbalance of supply and demand. On the one hand, the misjudgement of the markets can be traced back to the stormy development of the global economy and the boom in demand for commodities triggered by it, which came unexpectedly for many market participants. On the other hand, the misjudgement results from technical developments that were not recognised in time. The analysis of the drivers of the commodity markets makes it possible to narrow down possible future developments and to prepare for them as a precaution. The fundamental market data compiled clearly point in the direction of an overall increase in demand for commodities.

Authors

Angerer, Gerhard; Erdmann, Lorenz; Marscheider-Weidemann, Frank; Scharp, Michael; Lüllmann, Arne; Handke, Volker; Marwede, Max